CIS is moving towards integration of forensic databases.

It is reported by leading Russian informational agencies that 17th of September 2010 ministers of internal affairs of the CIS have signed documents on developing of a single forensic database.

Currently, law enforcement agencies of CIS countries exchanged information, but the processing of requests for its issuance takes a long time.

I expect that in 12-18 months the procedure of criminal background check of the Subject who was involved in criminal activity in several CIS countries will be simplified (nowadays this assignment requires independent investigation in every country of interest, takes much time and money).

Direct links to statistical data of Russian Federation

Sometimes it is required to include simple benchmarking analysis to your background screening project. One knows that valid data requires fresh investigation (research) but if we need to have a general view of the market some statistic can be enough for decision maker.
Where can we get this data if we deal with the Subject from Russian Federation? Our first step is the Federal State Statistics Service.

On this site you will find general statistical data about population, economy, regional development of the country etc. English version of the Federal State Statistics Service site is less informative and knowledge of Russian language is essential. 

If your Subject is involved in international trade some important statistical data and regulations can be found at Federal Customs Service. English version of the site is also poor.

Forecasting in background screening projects (private person activity forecasting)

At last the weather is comfortable and I'm ready to proceed with the series of previously announced articles.

I hope you remember that my last statement was "if only we could reconstruct business or personal strategy of the subject, then we would be able to predict subject's activity in the future".

We have several important data sources to analyze:
1. Subject's goals and targets
2. Subject's best practices
3. Subject's risks (excluding external environment)
4. Subject's timing

Let’s start from private person activity forecasting (in general it is simpler than company forecasting):

TIMING
When background screening project is over we have a lot of structured data about subject's future: when he will celebrate his birthdays, when his children will go to school, when he'll have to update his driver's license, when he will have to repay his debts, in what period of time he will resign etc.

Usually professional investigators and risk managers (at least in my area) pays this step of analysis little to none attention. In a scheme above I mentioned only main milestones, but it is reasonable to add Subject’s wife & parents birthdays, passport expiring dates etc.

SUBJECT’S RISKS
Dealing with background screening projects of Russian citizen in most cases I pay attention only to health risk, criminal risks (relations with criminal authorities), credit risks (unpaid or huge debts), family risks (divorce, fornication etc.) and corporate risks (if the Subject is a shareholder).

When these risks are identified, it is reasonable to proceed to

SUBJECT’S BEST PRACTICES
This section is the most difficult to analyze and even hard to explain for non-native English speaker. The aim of this section is to identify behavioral patterns of the Subject including (but not limited to): How long he used to stay at the same company (e.g. 2.5 years)? Does he study a lot after graduation (e.g. the Subject completed about 12 courses of business education, approximately 1 course a year)? Is he targeted on a long-termed partnership or makes money with unknown persons (e.g. for the last decade he was involved in 7 new partnerships but still makes business only with his close friends)? Was the subject ever claimed as a wife cheater?

In general I think that best practices can be divided into several sections:
1. Finance management practices (how the Subject deals with his personal or corporate finances)
2. Family & friends relations management practices (how he treats his relatives, friends, lovers etc.)
3. Corporate management practices (how the Subject manages his companies)
4. Personal development practices (how the Subject manages his personal skills, health, assets etc.)

It is reasonable to mention ones again that the aim is not to dig the data but to identify behavioral patterns of the Subject.
If we have enough raw data and preliminary analysis results are valid we can make the following type of the Subject’s best practices descriptions:
FINANCIES: When the Subject experience lack of personal finances he used to take a bank loan (he doesn’t ask his friends or business partners to help him and prefer to keep his problems to himself). He is said to be a bad debtor for personal loans but is strict in repaying corporate debts. If in 2011 he will have to get additional funds for his child application to the university he will have to ask foreign bank for a loan (Russian banks will refuse because he is listed as a bad debtor).
When all possible (taking into consideration project’s limits) best practices of the Subject are identified it is reasonable to proceed to the final part of the job – “Subject goals and targets”

SUBJECT'S GOALS AND TARGETS SECTION:

I think it is a good place to stop for today – I’ll be glad to see your comments and questions because the methodology I have started to present is a matter of discussion and I’m not sure that there are no better ways of the Subject’s behavior forecasting. That’s the way I do it.

The final statement I’d like to add is that even if it looks like the unified scheme for forecasting either Russian or the US private person behavior it is almost impossible to do this job unless the analyst understands the environment of the Subject.

Wish you a good day.

Couple of links to the brand new databases for background screening

It is still extremely hot in St. Petersburg and I have to convince that when the nature is playing against its’ rules it is pretty hard to write articles in non-native language. That’s why up until now I can’t finish my new article about forecasting.

Just to let you know that I’m still alive and try to keep my promises I’m glad to publish a couple of brand new links to officially opened for public databases applicable in several types of background screening projects in Russia.

FIRST – THE REGISTRY OF FEDERAL BAILIFFS SERVICE (IN BETA TEST MODE)
On its’ pages you’ll be able to check if the Subject-private person is wanted as defaulter; check if the legal body was claimed as a bankrupt.

Also there is a database of real estate arrested by the Federal Bailiffs Service and several registers useless in background screening projects
It is sad but the database is in Russian language only and it is not planned to translate its’ records into English.
I have to remind that the Registry is in test mode and some bugs are promised to be fixed in the nearest future.

SECOND - FEDERAL AGENCY FOR TOURISM, REGISTRY OF CERTIFIED TRAVEL TOURS OPERATORS
The search is simple and can give you the license number and expiry date of certified travel tours operators.

That’s all for today. I pray that the next few days the weather will change and I’ll be able to share some new ideas about complex tasks of background screening results analysis.
Thanks for your attention, hope these links will be also useful.